NORTH KOREA, IRAN, UNITED STATES & NUCLEAR FREE WORLD

How to avoid North Korean Nuclear threat?

How to make world Nuclear Free?

What should be the strategy?

Strategy – It seems vague on face of it but thinkable.

Let Nuclear aspirant cover full circle, ultimately everyone come at the point “zero” where it was started 150-200 years ago.

Deterrence Strategy – Let every country sign an agreement where nobody can use nuclear weapon in a war or any other situation however major countries of the world be allowed to possess nuclear & guarantee to protect smaller countries to avoid smaller countries to aspire having nuclear arsenal.  

How to avoid North Korea as Nuclear Country?

North Korea wants to have nuclear as deterrence to protect against threat from United States. Let Russia, China, India, United Kingdom, Pakistan, France (have nuclear) & other countries sign an agreement where nobody can use nuclear as first strike and ask North Korea to sign the same agreement & allow them to complete  nuclear aspiration.

Trust Factor: Considering past experience NK can’t be trusted in terms of fulfilling their obligation. Agreement should be framed in a way that in any situation or circumstances if North Korea uses nuclear weapon as first strike then other country of the world together should have power to topple the regime and the same should be counter signed by next powerful leader/authority of the striking country. The same clause should be apply to other countries also.

Counter other countries Nuclear Aspiration: Signing agreement with North Korea entices other countries like Iran, Turkey to have complete their nuclear capability. To avoid present/future war  these countries should be allowed to have nuclear capability with same kind of agreement as with North Korea. We can only suppress & delay for few countries to have nuclear capability but couldn’t completely dismantle without war, catastrophe and death of few millions. Better allow them to have deterrence capability by having nuclear but couldn’t use it in any circumstances or situation as first strike. However small countries aspiration should be tackled by guarantee from powerful countries and spillover effect in the hands extremism/terrorist should be handled together.

Conclusion: Deterrence real meaning is to avoid catastrophe/war and at the same time protect yourself & others dependent on you. Above mentioned strategy put you in an environment where you have “Nuclear weapon but you don’t have” means you can posses nuclear weapons but never be able to use it. It secures you and your adversaries as both feel protected, I have, you have but both of us can’t use it. They have but they can’t use it means we are at the point of 150-200 years ago where nobody has nuclear, difference is everybody has but nobody can use it, everybody feels protected and safe and world is at peace.

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North Korea, United States & South Korea, Are we trap in inevitable Future crisis?

We are facing world’s most imminent crisis, an authoritarian communist regime with childlike leader who got power from his ancestor by default at very young age. Kim Jong-un lived his whole life seeing his father & grand father ruled the country isolated from world and mostly moribund economy, having relation with very few country for economy and trade. Mostly lived under sanction due to non human nature & supression of value system and democracy.

However world is facing real threat from North Korea and its regime for the last few years when they started developing their aggression and ambition to become nuclear country. They have increased testing of missiles, every few days or a month we see another test from the regime, this has become more aggressive since the Iran deal, after Iran deal in the last 2 years they have conducted more than 15-17 test before that in 6 years number of test were mere 5-6.

How can we solve the problem? What is the best way to approach towards the issue? Do you think TIT-FOR-TAT is the solution? Shall we play game in reciprocative way? Is the war a solution? Is diplomacy still works? How to avoid catastrophe?

These are few questions that have been tussling our minds for quite some time. Before taking any action we should understand few facts-

Kim Jong-un a leader of North Korea got the leadership by default from ancestors even when he was not fully matured mentally, he is very unpredictable & have lust for regime power, eliminated his cousin & Uncle who could have put hindrance to his totalitarian control.

North korea has been living under sanction and isolation from world for a long period of time, they don’t trust anybody even not their communist brother China & Russia. Psychologically they are very weak for diplomatic solution or come on the table for negotiation.

North Korea sees world as threat to them unless & until have deterrence capability & as per them nuclear armguard provide them that capability.    

After Iran deal they have been very aggressive in testing, psychologically it proves that they can come on table for negotiation if trust can be built before bringing them on table. I think it is in Kim’s mind that at least he could walk away with Iran kind of deal, if nothing more happens.

In the last 6-8 months there are lots of missile test and after every test Kim confirm that next time it will be ICBM and already in the process of acquiring nuclear warhead, however all the tests ranges between 500-1000 km, I think it is just bluff or back of his mind to ask other party to come on negotiation table with putting himself upper hand on negotiation. Confirmation report says that all were intermediate range missile however last July 4 2017 launch confirms that may be there is a chance that it was kind of ICBM but no 100% proof, if regime would have developed ICBM, tested range would have beyond 1000 may be 3-4 thousand at 2-3 thousand altitude level & guidance system is also not installed. I think it is all bluff but no one can say 100%, Kim wants to negotiate with upper hand but nobody has been trying to catches single or even to think in that line.

War is not going to solve the problem considering Kim’s ancestral and lust for power and unpredictable nature. Diplomacy is the only solution if we want to avoid another catastrophe like Iraq, Vietnam & Bay of Pigs.

North Korea has very strong defence & military particularly artillery power, if war happens, only with artillery they can make huge damage to South Korea and if US-Korea can’t fold war within 4-6 hours, Seoul could be in real danger, millions of population can vanish.

I believe any kind of problem can be solved by diplomacy, if you can’t solve means you have scarcity of acute diplomat or thinker, some time we need to think out of box & understand psychological history of our enemy to solve the problem diplomatically. War is last resort for solving any kind of issue, once we understand how to separate our ego and responsibility. Some people think it works only in books not in real life but they don’t understand we have been living real life because of books.

Kim likes Dennis Rodman, former US basketball player, these kind of OUT-OF-BOX thinking can work, liking Dennis means we can understand Kim’s taste and preference to a certain extent by understanding Dennis Psychology, it seems both have something in common and wavelength matches. We need to understand how to execute the strategy properly to bring Kim on table.

Conclusion  

War is not the solution, yes I know if somebody try to persuade you to retaliate on your independence day means person is really immature & unpredictable. Reciprocation is not the solution neither we should let insane or unpredictable creature think we are weak, we don’t reciprocate because we are wise & want good for you and us both i.e win-win for everybody. Persuade or force US to act on independence day proves unpredictability of Kim, war is only going to provide distruction not solution or else we should confident enough and have 100% correct intelligence of regime evil belongings and able to destroy that within permissible time without incurring damage to ourselves and allies. Post success scenario should also be simulated properly so that civil war should not erupt in North Korea and we should not have to face Iraq & Arab spring kind of catastrophe and forces peaceful East Asia in turmoil. Out of box diplomacy or thinking can bring Kim on table, he is going to negotiate that’s why he has been aggressively testing missile after Iran deal, we should try to offer him Iran type of deal with better packaging and higher tenure. Future is uncertain we don’t know what is going to happen 20 years down the line, regime may survive or not, may be Kim attitude changes after the deal by allowing us monitoring his facility and lifting of sanction by world, in coming years technological advancement will provide us option to destroy ICBM in process itself after launch if at all in extreme circumstances North Korea built it in spite of agreement and uses it against US, buying time or delaying the war is the best option for everybody considering nature and maturity level of North Korean leader. If after agreement and negotiation Kim doesn’t fully support the cause then there are other ways to get rid of him.  

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Democracy & United States Importance, China’s rise as Economic Power & Future Ambition, Is the world colliding between two Ideology?

The United States has been backbone of world region, both developed and developing country take cue from US and develop their domestic and foreign policy accordingly. US has been great influence in policy making of other countries, however recent development in US is very scary for US and its allies and other developing country, they see United States as their leader, savior or providing support towards growing path.

The United States has been playing a dominant leadership role continuously for quite sometime and world expect US to play the role continuously in future also as they respect US values & US respect human values, yes there were few policy mistake or bad decision like Iraq invasion, Vietnam War and Arab Spring etc. but in spite of these hiccups last 70 years have been more peaceful since US took leadership role.

I always believe balance of hard & soft power should be in appropriate proportion, hard power means military power & software power carry diplomacy & intelligence. In today’s world of Artificial Intelligence, Internet, Automation, Robotics, IOT & Cyberspace soft power is going to play major role in any warfare or peace process. Gone are days when you require ground level military operation to win war, future holds more of drone kind of strike, information propaganda & cyberspace etc. Nuclear is very good deterrence strategy but I think it is never going to use in war unless we leave it with some unpredictable community/state. Current US administration increases budget spending on defence and reduces on state department, could not justify a good strategy considering changing in world dynamics. Upgradation of defence/military is must but reducing budget spending in state department is not justifiable considering the importance of diplomacy, spending in state department should have increased viewing present state of world geopolitics. In  world of cyberspace, IOT & AI intelligence is going to play major role in future geopolitics, budget in intelligence community also should have increased. A true democratic country believes in democracy and peace using military power as last resort. The biggest power is economic power, it is cure for most of the problem of this world, if not all. Sound economic environment automatically convert bad actors to good actors, the second most important power is diplomatic power and we can tackle any dam issue diplomatically without any blood shed however every time it is not possible that’s why sometime we have to use military power but our strategy should be minimum loss of human life, wealth & destruction. Intelligence power overlap all the 3 above however in future it is going to play more dominant role.

Recent development force us to see whether US is trying to become follower rather than leader, China is embarking towards development of “One Belt One Road” initiative connecting Asia-Africa-Europe-Russia, if it has been only trade initiative, may be it would be fine but it is not just trade initiative, China’s future ambition & action proves the logic to a certain extent. In future it can provide strategic control of the region and will spread communist ideology initially towards week state and afterwards other region & strong economy. Sri lanka is a very good example how china plays his card, first burden week economy with debt and once they are incapable of paying convert debt into equity and take control of major infrastructure just like port of Sri lanka, taking control of Greece port is another example where Greece is burden with huge deficit/debt and not fully supported by EU, presently around 10,000 china military personnel stakes at greek port, it shows more than commercial ambition, sees the opportunity to spread itself in the region. There are lots of strategic importance and weak countries and china knows how to play,  Myanmar is another example and even now it is daring to take on big democracy like india to develop ground for future play according to their rule. I am sounding too much negative but considering the future weak Europe after Brexit (if not integrated fiscally and monetarily), Middle East is already vulnerable mostly with authoritarian government, small and weak African and asian economy bombard with huge population no money and less development, these weaknesses will be leveraged by China and they are very good in it, considering chinese ancient history. Apart from that world’s largest communist country by geography Russia with strong military, intelligence & defence power will provide icing on cake for chinese. After 30-50 years I see majority of Asia, Africa, Middle East & European region as authoritarian or communist if US ceases global democratic leadership role and doesn’t force china to share leadership role on the basis of human values & democracy. 1.5 billion population with communist ideology will be too big to handle in future.

China OBOR vision is very ambitious not fully supported by underlying strength like Investment requirement & adverse financial situation & lack of transparency,  few days ago informal news confirm that US is going to part of the vision along with Russia that too after offering global leadership role to China on platter by walking away from TPP rather than negotiating it and including more countries to become part of it to strengthen alliance & strategic control and economic development of both US and its partner.

Economic power is the most important power & china is a very good example of it, considering china’s further economic & strategic strength, in future current US allies will be under threat of leaving US as their partner.  

Seeing rosy picture with 2 communist country to develop economic growth, alleviation of poverty and peace sounds very good on short term but with contradict value system and rising of economic & military power will lead to future conflict and divide world in two regions, one control by US that is America and another region Asia, Africa, Middle East & Europe by China & Russia. If situation go further worse than we are going to see Chinese hegemony globally.

In future I see US currency will be just 1/3 of importance then it is now. We will see dominance of Yuan & may be Euro, if it survives. I am not against any political system or ideology, believe in development, growth and peace and always see economic development is the only cure for any kind of disease. If China’s moto is only economic development and alleviation of people from poverty then it would have been fine but truth is not what we see, they have very dangerous moto behind silk route, supporting philippines leader even though heinous crime conducted by him against humanity just to have personal again in south china sea, not providing full support to solve North Korean nuclear issue though china is more than capable of doing it but reality is china seeking personal leverage, interest & ambition of future hegemony, we have the example of Soviet Union even present Russia and its value system.

US need to act like a leader as they had been, rather than follower, democracy doesn’t come as easily and have sheer importance and value though sometime we face hardship due to global turmoil, systemic risk or some mistakes but it provide checks and balance, value system, humanity and growth. World should be part of democracy but it doesn’t mean we should force political system and ideology on others, we should see everybody should follow humanity based growth & value system. If US approach continues toward protectionist & inward looking and ceases leadership & globalization role, then in distance future it would be confined to just like United Kingdom.

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United States Foreign Policy & its Synchronization with Trade, Economic, Defence, Immigration & Domestic Policy

How do you view Trump Administration Foreign policy? Does it properly align with Trade, Economy, Defence, Immigration & Domestic Policy? Is it following legacy of Obama administration Foreign policy? How world view US foreign policy? How current administration foreign policy will shape the world order? Can we predict the future events of global world considering unpredictable foreign policy?

These are the question that has been bothering lots of people, US Allies, adversaries, associates & dependent economy. Since the election of Donald Trump or even during the campaign period global world has been in kind of fear, how world is going to shape up? US the global leader has been carrying the ship of global leadership for the last 70 years with the support of allies, dependent economy & people with minimum hiccups as compare to WWI-WWII scenario where Europe & Asia were involved in constant war & insanity promoted by few Authoritarian leader who gives more importance to war, control of weaker economy, colonies & less importance to human values & peace.

In the last 70 years world has evolved under US leadership, Europe has become prosper by implementing Marshal Plan & European Union to develop trade and relationship rather than hatred & war, it also helps to contain aggression of Russia by forming an alliance  NATO. Multilateral institution has emerged to streamline global order, develop economy, protect weak economy and provide fund to shape the world towards more equal society free from hatred & unwillingness to encroach in others land etc. Yes we have seen few hiccups like cyclical economic expansion & contraction, Greatest Financial crisis/recession after great depression, Russian aggression on Georgia/Ukraine, China aggression in Asia, Dot-Com bubble & bust, Vietnam & Bay of Pigs war, India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, China-Japan-Russia war etc., these were handled properly with less damage under US Democratic leadership.

However there are few decisions like Iraq invasion, Arab spring, Defeating ISIS/IS/extremism etc. were not upto the mark under US policy decision. After Iraq invasion & elimination of Saddam Hussein Middle East has been under severe stress and further fuel ancient difference between Sunni & Shia ideology that ultimately lead to emergence of ISIS/IS, premature withdrawal of troops under agreement signed by Bush administration make IS strengthen its foothold in Middle East region, without fully controlling existing crisis & try to develop democracy in the region further backfire and lead to civil war and Arab Spring.

Obama administration policy to shift pivot from WEST to EAST (Asia-Pacific) and reallocate military base in the ratio of 60:40 in favour of Asia-Pacific was the right strategy  considering majority of Economic development & GDP growth is going to come from Asia- Pacific & TPP was also part of broader strategy and vision. However broader vision could not shape up properly due to lack of promotion as most of the time consumed in Arab Spring, less support from congress, & further touching the sensitive issue of building democracy in Middle East even though IS/Terrorist activity were not under full control and region was at infant state to promote democracy considering education level, religious belief and weak economy etc.

Now the new administration has very big challenge, if US would like to continue its leadership role. Though in the last 70 years US has appropriately fulfill its role as global leader however in the last 30 years few fault lines have been developed which are seen by very few.

Donald Trump “America First” slogan is fine if it align with long term strategy of United States but truth is that it is short-term strategy that doesn’t align with even medium term domestic strategy, leave apart foreign policy. Exit from Climate Accord & TPP is the biggest mistake by the administration. Opening of fossil fuel industry, mining, shale gas, fracking etc. only provide impetus to create job in short term however it is not going to sustain in medium to long term as renewal energy prices are falling down drastically & will create more jobs than traditional energy industry. In medium to long term it is going to hurt US economy & increase unemployment. At the end of Obama Administration US was having almost full employment barring few blue collar job and other people who require retraining. Yes participation rate has been reduced it is due to automation & desired skill set and retraining rather than trade policy. As per survey, in the last 25 years since 1990 88% job loss was happen due to automation and only 12% due to trade or shifting of production in China or other emerging market. US is at medium to upper level of pyramid and can’t support low skill job as it will raise production cost and make products uncompetitive and at the same time contradicting immigration policy of fetching great minds and deport undocumented people. As most of the low skill/unskilled job are performed by these undocumented immigrants without even creating burden on social security network. Donald Trump “America First” policy is short sighted and against american interest and illusion to set record of employment creation & doubling of GDP. Even it achieved something initially but in medium-long term it is going to develop fault lines, burden of which will be felt by next administration.

As per psychological test Donald Trump is some sort of Authoritarian and combination of Putin, Xi and Trump will take world to different direction. Donald Trump never believe in Free trade, globalization and alliance, 30 years ago also he didn’t believe in it, he conveyed the same in an interview though the world has changed drastically in last 30 years and globalization has provided fruits even he himself benefited from it.

Future global fault lines, Exceptional rise of China (1.4 billion population, communist ideology, defence/intelligence/economy/trade/navy/space/marine power, hard core communist leader, history suggest ambition to rule the world ) in a very short period time. On the face of “One Belt one Road” looks economic model but in reality it is more than that, China’s 19th century political vision. It can be confirmed with its initial ambition of taking stake in top 50% ports of world, in some cases majority control and staging military presence gradually, Converting debt into majority controlling stake in infrastructure of other country, Abnormal trade surplus vis-a-vis other country that created global inequality, imbalance & systemic risk & hurt small economy that depend upon china especially during recession/crisis, Aggression in South China Sea with increasing military & commercial base. Taking control of Greece port and stage 10,000 military troops.

OBOR initiative requires huge amount of investment and nearby regional small country will need lots of debt in order to make investment in infrastructure, considering China’s over ambitious project and current non transparent financial system can be catastrophe in future if project fails or china’s political ambition collide with economic ambition.

Unpredictable foreign policy of US or no foreign policy ( 30% cut in state department budget, Cut funding to EPA, UN & USAID, Exit from TPP, Believe in bilateral trade rather than multilateral trade, Exit from Climate Accord etc.). All these create insecurity in the mind of US allies, dependent economy, people of the world who sees US as Democratic country believes in human values, American value always align with human values.

It all suggest that US is serving everything to China in platter, China doesn’t even fight for it. Let China fight to share leadership role by giving importance to human and Democratic value. It would be good for the world to have sharing leadership role of countries having democratic human values. In spite of everything China is going to become too big to contain in future if US ceases global leadership role by give emphasis on protectionist & reversing executive orders of previous administration. It all creates disbelief, less trust/respect/security/safety and non-alignment of US Allies, dependent economy’s medium-long term plan with US strategy forces invisible financial, political & business loss.

Yes few of Donald Trump steps are good if not praiseworthy, change of stance to fight against IS/EXTREMISM looks good on face however considering isolation of Qatar by Arab world with US still persisting trade agreement and proving F16 aircraft to Qatar makes us confuse whether Administration have strategy to fight IS/EXTREMISM or transactional approach collide with strategy.

Foreign/trade/economy/domestic/defence/immigration policy go hand-in-hand, each one of them interdependent and interrelated with others and provide optimum result if pursue as “ONE STRATEGY”, it can’t be more true in globalized internet network connected world. Trade policy is not just trade policy, multilateral trade helps achieve economies of scale, reduce transaction cost, mitigate currency risk, improve on waste management, develop allies & strategic advantage zone.

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