The United States has been backbone of world region, both developed and developing country take cue from US and develop their domestic and foreign policy accordingly. US has been great influence in policy making of other countries, however recent development in US is very scary for US and its allies and other developing country, they see United States as their leader, savior or providing support towards growing path.
The United States has been playing a dominant leadership role continuously for quite sometime and world expect US to play the role continuously in future also as they respect US values & US respect human values, yes there were few policy mistake or bad decision like Iraq invasion, Vietnam War and Arab Spring etc. but in spite of these hiccups last 70 years have been more peaceful since US took leadership role.
I always believe balance of hard & soft power should be in appropriate proportion, hard power means military power & software power carry diplomacy & intelligence. In today’s world of Artificial Intelligence, Internet, Automation, Robotics, IOT & Cyberspace soft power is going to play major role in any warfare or peace process. Gone are days when you require ground level military operation to win war, future holds more of drone kind of strike, information propaganda & cyberspace etc. Nuclear is very good deterrence strategy but I think it is never going to use in war unless we leave it with some unpredictable community/state. Current US administration increases budget spending on defence and reduces on state department, could not justify a good strategy considering changing in world dynamics. Upgradation of defence/military is must but reducing budget spending in state department is not justifiable considering the importance of diplomacy, spending in state department should have increased viewing present state of world geopolitics. In world of cyberspace, IOT & AI intelligence is going to play major role in future geopolitics, budget in intelligence community also should have increased. A true democratic country believes in democracy and peace using military power as last resort. The biggest power is economic power, it is cure for most of the problem of this world, if not all. Sound economic environment automatically convert bad actors to good actors, the second most important power is diplomatic power and we can tackle any dam issue diplomatically without any blood shed however every time it is not possible that’s why sometime we have to use military power but our strategy should be minimum loss of human life, wealth & destruction. Intelligence power overlap all the 3 above however in future it is going to play more dominant role.
Recent development force us to see whether US is trying to become follower rather than leader, China is embarking towards development of “One Belt One Road” initiative connecting Asia-Africa-Europe-Russia, if it has been only trade initiative, may be it would be fine but it is not just trade initiative, China’s future ambition & action proves the logic to a certain extent. In future it can provide strategic control of the region and will spread communist ideology initially towards week state and afterwards other region & strong economy. Sri lanka is a very good example how china plays his card, first burden week economy with debt and once they are incapable of paying convert debt into equity and take control of major infrastructure just like port of Sri lanka, taking control of Greece port is another example where Greece is burden with huge deficit/debt and not fully supported by EU, presently around 10,000 china military personnel stakes at greek port, it shows more than commercial ambition, sees the opportunity to spread itself in the region. There are lots of strategic importance and weak countries and china knows how to play, Myanmar is another example and even now it is daring to take on big democracy like india to develop ground for future play according to their rule. I am sounding too much negative but considering the future weak Europe after Brexit (if not integrated fiscally and monetarily), Middle East is already vulnerable mostly with authoritarian government, small and weak African and asian economy bombard with huge population no money and less development, these weaknesses will be leveraged by China and they are very good in it, considering chinese ancient history. Apart from that world’s largest communist country by geography Russia with strong military, intelligence & defence power will provide icing on cake for chinese. After 30-50 years I see majority of Asia, Africa, Middle East & European region as authoritarian or communist if US ceases global democratic leadership role and doesn’t force china to share leadership role on the basis of human values & democracy. 1.5 billion population with communist ideology will be too big to handle in future.
China OBOR vision is very ambitious not fully supported by underlying strength like Investment requirement & adverse financial situation & lack of transparency, few days ago informal news confirm that US is going to part of the vision along with Russia that too after offering global leadership role to China on platter by walking away from TPP rather than negotiating it and including more countries to become part of it to strengthen alliance & strategic control and economic development of both US and its partner.
Economic power is the most important power & china is a very good example of it, considering china’s further economic & strategic strength, in future current US allies will be under threat of leaving US as their partner.
Seeing rosy picture with 2 communist country to develop economic growth, alleviation of poverty and peace sounds very good on short term but with contradict value system and rising of economic & military power will lead to future conflict and divide world in two regions, one control by US that is America and another region Asia, Africa, Middle East & Europe by China & Russia. If situation go further worse than we are going to see Chinese hegemony globally.
In future I see US currency will be just 1/3 of importance then it is now. We will see dominance of Yuan & may be Euro, if it survives. I am not against any political system or ideology, believe in development, growth and peace and always see economic development is the only cure for any kind of disease. If China’s moto is only economic development and alleviation of people from poverty then it would have been fine but truth is not what we see, they have very dangerous moto behind silk route, supporting philippines leader even though heinous crime conducted by him against humanity just to have personal again in south china sea, not providing full support to solve North Korean nuclear issue though china is more than capable of doing it but reality is china seeking personal leverage, interest & ambition of future hegemony, we have the example of Soviet Union even present Russia and its value system.
US need to act like a leader as they had been, rather than follower, democracy doesn’t come as easily and have sheer importance and value though sometime we face hardship due to global turmoil, systemic risk or some mistakes but it provide checks and balance, value system, humanity and growth. World should be part of democracy but it doesn’t mean we should force political system and ideology on others, we should see everybody should follow humanity based growth & value system. If US approach continues toward protectionist & inward looking and ceases leadership & globalization role, then in distance future it would be confined to just like United Kingdom.
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