NORTH KOREA, IRAN, UNITED STATES & NUCLEAR FREE WORLD

How to avoid North Korean Nuclear threat?

How to make world Nuclear Free?

What should be the strategy?

Strategy – It seems vague on face of it but thinkable.

Let Nuclear aspirant cover full circle, ultimately everyone come at the point “zero” where it was started 150-200 years ago.

Deterrence Strategy – Let every country sign an agreement where nobody can use nuclear weapon in a war or any other situation however major countries of the world be allowed to possess nuclear & guarantee to protect smaller countries to avoid smaller countries to aspire having nuclear arsenal.  

How to avoid North Korea as Nuclear Country?

North Korea wants to have nuclear as deterrence to protect against threat from United States. Let Russia, China, India, United Kingdom, Pakistan, France (have nuclear) & other countries sign an agreement where nobody can use nuclear as first strike and ask North Korea to sign the same agreement & allow them to complete  nuclear aspiration.

Trust Factor: Considering past experience NK can’t be trusted in terms of fulfilling their obligation. Agreement should be framed in a way that in any situation or circumstances if North Korea uses nuclear weapon as first strike then other country of the world together should have power to topple the regime and the same should be counter signed by next powerful leader/authority of the striking country. The same clause should be apply to other countries also.

Counter other countries Nuclear Aspiration: Signing agreement with North Korea entices other countries like Iran, Turkey to have complete their nuclear capability. To avoid present/future war  these countries should be allowed to have nuclear capability with same kind of agreement as with North Korea. We can only suppress & delay for few countries to have nuclear capability but couldn’t completely dismantle without war, catastrophe and death of few millions. Better allow them to have deterrence capability by having nuclear but couldn’t use it in any circumstances or situation as first strike. However small countries aspiration should be tackled by guarantee from powerful countries and spillover effect in the hands extremism/terrorist should be handled together.

Conclusion: Deterrence real meaning is to avoid catastrophe/war and at the same time protect yourself & others dependent on you. Above mentioned strategy put you in an environment where you have “Nuclear weapon but you don’t have” means you can posses nuclear weapons but never be able to use it. It secures you and your adversaries as both feel protected, I have, you have but both of us can’t use it. They have but they can’t use it means we are at the point of 150-200 years ago where nobody has nuclear, difference is everybody has but nobody can use it, everybody feels protected and safe and world is at peace.

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North Korea, United States & South Korea, Are we trap in inevitable Future crisis?

We are facing world’s most imminent crisis, an authoritarian communist regime with childlike leader who got power from his ancestor by default at very young age. Kim Jong-un lived his whole life seeing his father & grand father ruled the country isolated from world and mostly moribund economy, having relation with very few country for economy and trade. Mostly lived under sanction due to non human nature & supression of value system and democracy.

However world is facing real threat from North Korea and its regime for the last few years when they started developing their aggression and ambition to become nuclear country. They have increased testing of missiles, every few days or a month we see another test from the regime, this has become more aggressive since the Iran deal, after Iran deal in the last 2 years they have conducted more than 15-17 test before that in 6 years number of test were mere 5-6.

How can we solve the problem? What is the best way to approach towards the issue? Do you think TIT-FOR-TAT is the solution? Shall we play game in reciprocative way? Is the war a solution? Is diplomacy still works? How to avoid catastrophe?

These are few questions that have been tussling our minds for quite some time. Before taking any action we should understand few facts-

Kim Jong-un a leader of North Korea got the leadership by default from ancestors even when he was not fully matured mentally, he is very unpredictable & have lust for regime power, eliminated his cousin & Uncle who could have put hindrance to his totalitarian control.

North korea has been living under sanction and isolation from world for a long period of time, they don’t trust anybody even not their communist brother China & Russia. Psychologically they are very weak for diplomatic solution or come on the table for negotiation.

North Korea sees world as threat to them unless & until have deterrence capability & as per them nuclear armguard provide them that capability.    

After Iran deal they have been very aggressive in testing, psychologically it proves that they can come on table for negotiation if trust can be built before bringing them on table. I think it is in Kim’s mind that at least he could walk away with Iran kind of deal, if nothing more happens.

In the last 6-8 months there are lots of missile test and after every test Kim confirm that next time it will be ICBM and already in the process of acquiring nuclear warhead, however all the tests ranges between 500-1000 km, I think it is just bluff or back of his mind to ask other party to come on negotiation table with putting himself upper hand on negotiation. Confirmation report says that all were intermediate range missile however last July 4 2017 launch confirms that may be there is a chance that it was kind of ICBM but no 100% proof, if regime would have developed ICBM, tested range would have beyond 1000 may be 3-4 thousand at 2-3 thousand altitude level & guidance system is also not installed. I think it is all bluff but no one can say 100%, Kim wants to negotiate with upper hand but nobody has been trying to catches single or even to think in that line.

War is not going to solve the problem considering Kim’s ancestral and lust for power and unpredictable nature. Diplomacy is the only solution if we want to avoid another catastrophe like Iraq, Vietnam & Bay of Pigs.

North Korea has very strong defence & military particularly artillery power, if war happens, only with artillery they can make huge damage to South Korea and if US-Korea can’t fold war within 4-6 hours, Seoul could be in real danger, millions of population can vanish.

I believe any kind of problem can be solved by diplomacy, if you can’t solve means you have scarcity of acute diplomat or thinker, some time we need to think out of box & understand psychological history of our enemy to solve the problem diplomatically. War is last resort for solving any kind of issue, once we understand how to separate our ego and responsibility. Some people think it works only in books not in real life but they don’t understand we have been living real life because of books.

Kim likes Dennis Rodman, former US basketball player, these kind of OUT-OF-BOX thinking can work, liking Dennis means we can understand Kim’s taste and preference to a certain extent by understanding Dennis Psychology, it seems both have something in common and wavelength matches. We need to understand how to execute the strategy properly to bring Kim on table.

Conclusion  

War is not the solution, yes I know if somebody try to persuade you to retaliate on your independence day means person is really immature & unpredictable. Reciprocation is not the solution neither we should let insane or unpredictable creature think we are weak, we don’t reciprocate because we are wise & want good for you and us both i.e win-win for everybody. Persuade or force US to act on independence day proves unpredictability of Kim, war is only going to provide distruction not solution or else we should confident enough and have 100% correct intelligence of regime evil belongings and able to destroy that within permissible time without incurring damage to ourselves and allies. Post success scenario should also be simulated properly so that civil war should not erupt in North Korea and we should not have to face Iraq & Arab spring kind of catastrophe and forces peaceful East Asia in turmoil. Out of box diplomacy or thinking can bring Kim on table, he is going to negotiate that’s why he has been aggressively testing missile after Iran deal, we should try to offer him Iran type of deal with better packaging and higher tenure. Future is uncertain we don’t know what is going to happen 20 years down the line, regime may survive or not, may be Kim attitude changes after the deal by allowing us monitoring his facility and lifting of sanction by world, in coming years technological advancement will provide us option to destroy ICBM in process itself after launch if at all in extreme circumstances North Korea built it in spite of agreement and uses it against US, buying time or delaying the war is the best option for everybody considering nature and maturity level of North Korean leader. If after agreement and negotiation Kim doesn’t fully support the cause then there are other ways to get rid of him.  

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